Sentivue/Glossary/Position Sizing

Glossary

Volatility Targeting

Position-sizing rule that scales exposure inversely with realized volatility to hit a constant target risk level. Standard in CTA and systematic equity portfolios.

Sentivue Capital··4 min read

Volatility targeting is a position-sizing rule that scales exposure inversely with realized volatility to maintain a constant target risk level. If realized vol doubles, position size halves.

Mechanic

position_size = (target_vol / realized_vol) × notional

Realized vol is typically a 20- to 60-day exponentially weighted standard deviation of returns. Target vol is set institutionally — common values: 8–12% annualized for diversified portfolios, 15–20% for single-strategy futures programs.

Why it works

  1. Vol clusters. Today's high vol predicts tomorrow's high vol better than chance. Scaling down preempts drawdowns.
  2. Smoother equity curve. Compounding penalizes vol — a constant-vol strategy compounds faster than the same strategy with vol drift.
  3. Comparable units. Strategies sized to identical target vol can be combined and compared on equal footing.

When it hurts

  • Mean-reverting markets after vol spike. You scale down right as the move reverses. Common in equity index reversals.
  • Persistent regime shift to low vol. You lever up into a complacent market and get whipsawed when the regime breaks.
  • High-frequency strategies where the realized-vol estimate lags the relevant horizon.

Practical guardrails

  • Cap maximum leverage. The formula will happily recommend 10× when realized vol crashes.
  • Floor minimum position size when realized vol explodes. Below ~10% of notional you're effectively flat — better to honestly flatten.
  • Use exponential weighting; equal-weight rolling vol overweights stale observations.

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